Goalie Efficiency Model · GEMGoalie Development Report
Vegas Golden Knights
Sports Performance Analysis · G.E.M.Prepared for Vegas Golden Knights Hockey Operations · Confidential — not for redistribution sports-performance-analysis.com 01 /
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What this report is built on

Carter Hart
G · Vegas Golden Knights · NHL
16Games in sampleGames in sampleGames we tagged for him, not his full season. Every number on this card comes from these games only. 427Shots analyzedShots analyzedEvery shot tagged across those games, including ones with no save or goal recorded against them. 412DecidedDecided shotsShots that ended in a save or a goal. Blocked, missed and undecided attempts are left out. This is the base for save percentage. 39GAGoals againstGoals he conceded in this sample. .905SV% in sampleSave percentageSaves divided by decided shots. It will not match his published season number: different games, and only decided shots count.
Playoff sample · 04.29 – 06.14.2026 · 16 games
Adin Hill
G · Vegas Golden Knights · NHL
14Games in sampleGames in sampleGames we tagged for him, not his full season. Every number on this card comes from these games only. 274Shots analyzedShots analyzedEvery shot tagged across those games, including ones with no save or goal recorded against them. 269DecidedDecided shotsShots that ended in a save or a goal. Blocked, missed and undecided attempts are left out. This is the base for save percentage. 35GAGoals againstGoals he conceded in this sample. .870SV% in sampleSave percentageSaves divided by decided shots. It will not match his published season number: different games, and only decided shots count.
Regular season sample · 03.01 – 04.09.2026 · 14 games
Every number in this report describes what happened in this analyzed sample — not the season, and not the goalie in general.
  • Two goalies, two competitive contexts — Hart’s 16 tagged games are a playoff run and Hill’s 14 are regular season, so the two sets of rates are not like for like. Each is measured against the pool, never against the other.
  • No single night carries either set of rates — Hart’s heaviest game holds 10% of his goals and excluding it he is .911; Hill’s heaviest game holds 14% of his goals and excluding it he is .879.
  • Baseline (“pool”) = every goalie we track, all clubs — 3,874 decided shots, each goalie measured against the others, never against himself — not a league average
Carter Hart
DateOpponentDecSAGASv%TOI
Adin Hill
DateOpponentDecSAGASv%TOI
Our Sample

Volume and Quality faced

Carter Hart
Playoffs · 427 shots analyzed · 39 goals against
Overall save %Overall
.000
373/412
Grade-A save %Grade-A
.000
61/86
25.8
shots faced per game
16 coded games
21%
of his shots were Grade-A
Goalies we track: 30%
Adin Hill
Regular season · 274 shots analyzed · 35 goals against
Overall save %Overall
.000
234/269
Grade-A save %Grade-A
.000
50/78
19.2
shots faced per game
14 coded games
29%
of his shots were Grade-A
Goalies we track: 30%
  • The shot diet was not the same — 21% of the shots Hart faced were Grade-A against 29% for Hill and 30% across the goalies we track, which is real context underneath his .905. On Grade-A itself both sit under the pool: Hart .709 and Hill .641 against .725.
  • Rebound control is what separates them — 25% of Hart’s saves left a rebound and 31% of Hill’s, against 41% across the goalies we track. Those rebounds were attacked on 10% and 7% of saves against the pool’s 14%, so the second chances are being created rather than paid for.
  • The same held for movement — Hart pushed across the crease 34.4 times a game to Hill’s 31.5, with 26.4 butterfly drops to 18.5 and 14.0 RVH sequences to 8.5. Against the tracked group (33.6 pushes a game) that puts Hart 2% above and Hill 6% below — 1.1× the pushing load between the two of them.
What the movement data shows
Most-used chains share of all shots
Carter Hart
Post Entry Feet → RVH Entry From Feet184.4%
Post Entry Feet → Step Out - Set174.1%
Adin Hill
Post Entry Feet → Step Out - Set3513.0%
Post Entry Feet → RVH Entry From Feet2910.8%
Save selection share of saves
Carter Hart
Butterfly Blocker5715.7%
Pad Save5214.4%
Adin Hill
Blocking Body Save4318.7%
Butterfly Glove3314.3%
Beaten share of goals
Carter Hart
Five Hole822%
Btw BlockerBody514%
Adin Hill
Blocker Mid926%
Blocker High823%
Carter Hart

Quick releases and the perimeter didn’t beat him

Overall save % · in these games
.000
373/412 in sample · 16 games
pool.897+.008
21%Grade-A shareGrade-A shareThe share of shots against him we graded Grade-A — the most dangerous chances. .709Grade-A save %Grade-A save percentageHis save percentage on Grade-A chances only. His rate on everything else sits well above this. 12.8%should’ve-had goalsShould’ve-had goalsThe share of his goals against that we graded as ones he would expect to stop.
Statistical profile
  • A puck that arrives early is not what beats him: .967 on quick releases (30 shots, pool .879) and .952 on deflections (20/21).
  • The perimeter and the dot lane are his: .984 from the blue line (63/64) and .946 from the dot lane (122/129, pool .909).
  • Goal quality is level with the pool: 5 of 39 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier (12.8%, pool 14.3%). 25% of his saves left a rebound, 36 of those attacked.
By situation — where he grades wellPoolHart
Quick releaseshot off the catch · 30 shots.879.967 29/30
Blue-line shots.957.984 63/64
Dot-lane shots.909.946 122/129
Deflections21 shots.828.952 20/21
Controlled zone entriescoming into the offensive zone · 56 shots.886.929 52/56
Set offensive-zone play138 shots.884.920 127/138

Deflections and the quick-release row rest on 21 and 30 shots — comfortable margins on modest populations. No shot in this report enters the pool it is measured against.

Carter Hart

Movement load

Goalie Workload Index
0
100 = group average · 16 games · 15 points more per-game movement load than Hill
111movement MovementEvery movement in his tagged chains, each carrying its 1–5 difficulty rating, added up. Weight is what makes this different from a step count.His230.3 a gameThe group206.8 a gameWeight in the index50%230.3 ÷ 206.8 = 111, so 100 is the group average. The group is the other goalie-seasons we track — he is never counted inside his own benchmark. 104shots faced Shots facedShots faced, weighted for the quality of the chance — a Grade-A counts three, a mid chance two, a low chance one.His41.6 a gameThe group40.0 a gameWeight in the index30%41.6 ÷ 40.0 = 104, so 100 is the group average. The group is the other goalie-seasons we track — he is never counted inside his own benchmark. 122shorthanded ShorthandedThe same weighted movement, counted only on shots where the opponent had the extra skater. Any state where he is outnumbered, worked out from the strength on each shot rather than a fixed list.His53.0 a gameThe group43.5 a gameWeight in the index20%53.0 ÷ 43.5 = 122, so 100 is the group average. The group is the other goalie-seasons we track — he is never counted inside his own benchmark. 3.52difficulty per move How a movement is graded1Adjustments and holds12%2Small repositioning steps8%3Down and up, post pushes14%4Pushes, shuffles, back to the feet48%5Slides and on-ice recoveries18%Each movement carries a cost from 1 to 5, set by the goalie staff. It grades strain, not just distance — a double seal rates a 4 with no travel in it at all. Averaged across 1,048 graded movements.
Volume
34.426.414.0PUSHESDROPSRVH's551 in 16423 in 16224 in 16+3% vs 33.5+23% vs 21.6+39% vs 10.1
his average a gamethe groupscale to 55 / 35 / 15
DirectionleftrightPushes across the crease45%25030155%RVH post play41%7210359%Direction is the way he travelled, so the driving leg is the mirror — going left is a right-leg push. That puts 55% of his pushes on the left leg. Post play counts entries and in-post movement, never exits.
Movement profile
  • Drives off his left leg 9% more often. A standing imbalance of that size is a strength and conditioning target.
  • 66% of his movements are rated hard (4 or 5) against 58% for the group — 43.4 a game at 3.52 difficulty per movement. His work is more demanding than the volume alone suggests.
  • His load leans hardest on post play, which loads the hips — 39% above the group. That is what to condition for if you are training his game rather than a template.
  • 23% of his movement happens down a man, 22% more shorthanded work per game than the group. Penalty-kill conditioning earns its place in his week.
This is a conditioning tool. It counts the work his body did, so the staff can plan around it — not a measure of how well he played: on this corpus it does not predict save percentage.
Game by game · load index
Apr 2026
206vs UTAApr 29vs UTAApr 29, 202635 shots facedload index 206
May 2026
113at UTAMay 1at UTAMay 1, 202622 shots facedload index 113114vs ANAMay 6vs ANAMay 6, 202623 shots facedload index 114128at ANAMay 10at ANAMay 10, 202623 shots facedload index 128100vs ANAMay 12vs ANAMay 12, 202629 shots facedload index 100143at ANAMay 14at ANAMay 14, 202630 shots facedload index 143129at COLMay 20at COLMay 20, 202633 shots facedload index 12993at COLMay 22at COLMay 22, 202628 shots facedload index 93160vs COLMay 24vs COLMay 24, 202632 shots facedload index 16072vs COLMay 26vs COLMay 26, 202619 shots facedload index 72
Jun 2026
81at CARJun 2at CARJun 2, 202625 shots facedload index 8189at CARJun 4at CARJun 4, 202623 shots facedload index 89106vs CARJun 6vs CARJun 6, 202629 shots facedload index 10691vs CARJun 9vs CARJun 9, 202623 shots facedload index 91109at CARJun 11at CARJun 11, 202620 shots facedload index 10943vs CARJun 14vs CARJun 14, 202618 shots facedload index 43

One bar per game — 100 is an average night. vs home, at away. Light gold is above 100, full gold 40% or more above his median of 109; heaviest at home to UTA at 206.

Carter Hart

Focus areas

By situationPoolHart
Plays at the postsharp angles, wraps and jams.906.837 41/49
Quick attacks off a forced turnoverturnover back on net before the structure resets.904.854 35/41
The carrier shoots off the rushthe rush ending in a shot rather than a pass.951.897 35/39
Grade-A chancescontext22 of his 34 goals.725.709 61/86
Slot shotscontextfrom the interior.827.824 89/108
Penalty killfour on five.857.855 47/55

Rows marked context describe how it went; the rest are situations a coach can work on. The rows overlap, so their shares of one goal set do not sum to it.

Carter Hart

Development keys

CH1 Plays at the post: sharp angles, wraps and jams hispoolSave %.837.906Rebound %34%48%8 GA on 49 shots · a rebound on 14 of 41 saves48 clips The puck works below the goal line or into a dead angle and he has to hold his seal at the post. The goals come in moments of transition: still moving rather than set, which turns a manageable puck into a hard save. Some arrive on plays he has not scanned for. The play also rarely ends there. He controls rebounds better than the group in this situation, but pucks are held with the body and elbows more than the hands, so few finish in a whistle or out of play. The shift extends and the work that follows lands on him. The build: post-entry timing, vision checks to dangerous ice, and using the glove and blocker to kill the play rather than keep it alive. Dev Clips
CH2 Quick attacks off a forced turnover hispoolSave %.854.904Rebound %17%39%6 GA on 41 shots · a rebound on 6 of 35 saves41 clips A forced turnover puts the puck back on net before the structure in front of him resets. All six goals here are Grade-A and four come from the slot, so they arrive through the middle with bodies still moving. The clean saves tend to come when the play gives him more time or fewer options; the goals come when it is quick and the options multiply. This is the same build as his post play: vision checks to dangerous ice, so anticipation arrives ahead of the puck. Dev Clips
CH3 The carrier shoots off the rush hispoolSave %.897.951Rebound %17%37%4 GA on 39 shots · a rebound on 6 of 35 saves39 clips The group finds the carrier's shot on the rush comparatively routine at .951, and the rush that ends in a pass much harder at .864. His own two numbers are level, .897 and .889, so the whole gap sits on the carrier's shot. His saves show depth held and a square base to the carrier, and the clean ones stand out for ending the play there rather than extending it into more zone time. The build: finishing the play on the first save so the shift ends with it. Dev Clips
Adin Hill

Low and wide is where he was hardest to beat

Overall save % · in these games
.000
234/269 in sample · 14 games
pool.897−.027
29%Grade-A shareGrade-A shareThe share of shots against him we graded Grade-A — the most dangerous chances. .641Grade-A save %Grade-A save percentageHis save percentage on Grade-A chances only. His rate on everything else sits well above this. 14.3%should’ve-had goalsShould’ve-had goalsThe share of his goals against that we graded as ones he would expect to stop.
Statistical profile
  • Low is sealed: 1.000 low glove (29 shots) and .971 low blocker (34/35), .978 across every low trajectory (91/93, pool .945).
  • Wide angles suit him: 1.000 from the blue line (29 shots, pool .957) and .917 from dead angles (33/36); on the rush shot itself he is .955 (42/44).
  • Goal quality matches the pool: 5 of 35 goals carry a should’ve-had qualifier (14.3%, pool 14.3%). 31% of his saves left a rebound, 16 of those attacked.
By situation — where he grades wellPoolHill
Blue-line shots29 shots.9571.000 29/29
Low trajectoriesglove low, blocker low and five hole.945.978 91/93
Rush shotsthe shot taken on the rush itself.951.955 42/44
Dead-angle shots36 shots.904.917 33/36
Quick attacks off turnovers35 shots.904.914 32/35
Deflections22 shots.828.909 20/22

Dead angles, quick attacks off turnovers and deflections rest on 36, 35 and 22 shots. No shot in this report enters the pool it is measured against.

Adin Hill

Movement load

Goalie Workload Index
0
100 = group average · 14 games · 15 points less per-game movement load than Hart
95movement MovementEvery movement in his tagged chains, each carrying its 1–5 difficulty rating, added up. Weight is what makes this different from a step count.His197.9 a gameThe group209.1 a gameWeight in the index50%197.9 ÷ 209.1 = 95, so 100 is the group average. The group is the other goalie-seasons we track — he is never counted inside his own benchmark. 84shots faced Shots facedShots faced, weighted for the quality of the chance — a Grade-A counts three, a mid chance two, a low chance one.His34.0 a gameThe group40.6 a gameWeight in the index30%34.0 ÷ 40.6 = 84, so 100 is the group average. The group is the other goalie-seasons we track — he is never counted inside his own benchmark. 118shorthanded ShorthandedThe same weighted movement, counted only on shots where the opponent had the extra skater. Any state where he is outnumbered, worked out from the strength on each shot rather than a fixed list.His51.5 a gameThe group43.6 a gameWeight in the index20%51.5 ÷ 43.6 = 118, so 100 is the group average. The group is the other goalie-seasons we track — he is never counted inside his own benchmark. 3.47difficulty per move How a movement is graded1Adjustments and holds8%2Small repositioning steps15%3Down and up, post pushes13%4Pushes, shuffles, back to the feet49%5Slides and on-ice recoveries15%Each movement carries a cost from 1 to 5, set by the goalie staff. It grades strain, not just distance — a double seal rates a 4 with no travel in it at all. Averaged across 799 graded movements.
Volume
31.518.58.5PUSHESDROPSRVH's441 in 14259 in 14119 in 14−7% vs 33.8−16% vs 22.1−19% vs 10.5
his average a gamethe groupscale to 55 / 35 / 15
DirectionleftrightPushes across the crease47%20723453%RVH post play35%315765%Direction is the way he travelled, so the driving leg is the mirror — going left is a right-leg push. That puts 53% of his pushes on the left leg. Post play counts entries and in-post movement, never exits.
Movement profile
  • Drives off his left leg 6% more often. A standing imbalance of that size is a strength and conditioning target.
  • 64% of his movements are rated hard (4 or 5) against 59% for the group — 36.4 a game at 3.47 difficulty per movement. His work is more demanding than the volume alone suggests.
  • No single kind of movement dominates — his load is evenly spread.
  • 24% of his movement happens down a man, 18% more shorthanded work per game than the group. Penalty-kill conditioning earns its place in his week.
This is a conditioning tool. It counts the work his body did, so the staff can plan around it — not a measure of how well he played: on this corpus it does not predict save percentage.
Game by game · load index
Mar 2026
124at PITMar 1at PITMar 1, 202622 shots facedload index 124111at DETMar 4at DETMar 4, 202622 shots facedload index 11179vs EDMMar 8vs EDMMar 8, 202616 shots facedload index 7959at DALMar 10at DALMar 10, 202614 shots facedload index 59147vs PITMar 12vs PITMar 12, 202623 shots facedload index 14791vs CHIMar 14vs CHIMar 14, 202617 shots facedload index 9198vs BUFMar 17vs BUFMar 17, 202622 shots facedload index 9817vs UTAMar 19vs UTAMar 19, 20263 shots facedload index 17Short appearance — too few shots to read as a full night.69at DALMar 22at DALMar 22, 202612 shots facedload index 69105at WPGMar 24at WPGMar 24, 202619 shots facedload index 105111vs EDMMar 26vs EDMMar 26, 202626 shots facedload index 111124vs WSHMar 28vs WSHMar 28, 202620 shots facedload index 12483vs VANMar 30vs VANMar 30, 202620 shots facedload index 83
Apr 2026
126at SEAApr 9at SEAApr 9, 202633 shots facedload index 126

One bar per game — 100 is an average night. vs home, at away. Light gold is above 100, full gold 40% or more above his median of 105; heaviest at home to PIT at 147. Hollow = short appearance, too few shots to read as a full night.

Adin Hill

Focus areas

By situationPoolHill
Shots that finish above the padblocker high and mid, glove high.856.723 60/83
Catch and shoot inside the dotsreceived and released in the interior.875.682 15/22
Grade-A chances off lateral movementafter the puck crosses the middle.750.618 21/34
Grade-A chancescontext28 of his 35 goals.725.641 50/78
Slot shotscontextfrom the interior.827.808 80/99
Penalty killfour on five.857.825 33/40

Rows marked context describe how it went; the rest are situations a coach can work on. The rows overlap, so their shares of one goal set do not sum to it.

Adin Hill

Development keys

AH1 Shots that finish above the pad hispoolSave %.723.856Rebound %37%33%23 GA on 83 shots · a rebound on 22 of 60 saves83 clips His low game stays a strength, at or above the group on both low corners and on glove mid. Two mechanics show up in the goals. He over-rotates through the save, taking the blocker off-square to the release point instead of projecting it out in front of his body to meet the trajectory line early, which costs time and angle he does not get back before the release. And his hands drop as he enters the butterfly, giving up high coverage on the blocker side and turning what should be a set save into a rounded, reactive one on high glove. Both point to one root: meeting the puck late in its path rather than getting his tools out in front of it early. Dev Clips
AH2 Catch and shoot inside the dots hispoolSave %.682.875Rebound %27%39%7 GA on 22 shots · a rebound on 4 of 15 saves20 clips Outside the dots he is untouched on catch and release: twelve shots, no goals against. Inside the dots the puck is received and released before his depth and angle are re-set. The skill to build: Taking depth on plays inside the house. Trusting his foot speed or playing with forwards flow to get to his spots and let his frame do the work. Dev Clips
AH3 Grade-A chances off lateral movement hispoolSave %.618.750Rebound %43%47%13 GA on 34 shots · a rebound on 9 of 21 saves34 clips These are Grade-A chances that arrive after the puck has crossed the middle of the ice, or come from below the goal line to the slot. He controls rebounds well, better than the group, so second chances are not what is at stake here: it is the first shot after the puck changes sides. The saves show him arriving set with the feet stopped; the goals show the release coming while he is still travelling, driven by late reads and drift timing on rush passes across the midline, and late depth on low-to-slot plays, at times costing him body control on the release. Dev Clips
Sports Performance Analysis
Goalie Efficiency Model

Goalie Development Report

Carter Hart  ·  Adin Hill
Prepared for Vegas Golden Knights Hockey Operations · Confidential — not for redistribution
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